Trade of the Week – December 15, 2025

NVDA Mean Reversion Setup in a Year-End Environment

As we enter the final full trading weeks of 2025, market behavior continues to shift toward range-based price action, selective volatility, and institutional profit protection. Rather than chasing momentum, this environment favors structured mean-reversion trades—particularly in names that have led throughout the year.

This week’s focus: NVIDIA (NVDA).

Why NVDA Right Now

NVDA has been one of the market’s dominant leaders, benefiting from continued enthusiasm around AI infrastructure, data centers, and institutional capital rotation. As a result, NVDA frequently becomes overextended relative to its short- and intermediate-term value zones, especially late in the year.

Heading into Monday, December 15th, NVDA fits several key Interval Trader parameters:

• Extended above its dominant regression mean

• Price trading near the upper boundary of its volatility range

• Momentum slowing on intraday timeframes

• Volume beginning to flatten rather than expand

• Psychological round-number resistance often in play

This creates an ideal environment for a controlled reversion trade, not a trend call.

Trade Thesis

NVDA Mean Reversion from Volatility Extremes

The objective this week is not to predict a top, but to allow NVDA to cycle back toward equilibrium after an extended push.

When leadership stocks stall near upper volatility bands in December, price often reverts before resuming longer-term structure.

Trade Structure (Interval Methodology)

Symbol: NVDA
Market Bias: Neutral → Slightly Bearish (reversion-based)
Trade Type: Mean reversion (shares or defined-risk options)

Timeframes

• Context: Daily / 4-Hour

• Execution: 60-Minute → 30-Minute

Entry Conditions

• Price holding +2 to +3 standard deviations above its mean

• Failure to sustain new highs intraday

• Momentum divergence on execution timeframe

• Rejection from a prior institutional resistance zone

Target

• Reversion toward the dominant value area / regression midline

• Partial profits taken early

• Remainder managed mechanically

Stop

• Defined beyond the volatility extreme

• No averaging

• No emotional adjustments

Why This Trade Works in December

1. Seasonality: December often compresses follow-through

2. Institutional Positioning: Funds protect gains, reduce exposure

3. Liquidity: Thinner participation exaggerates intraday swings

4. Psychology: Retail chases strength late year—professionals fade extremes

NVDA’s liquidity and option depth make it ideal for precision execution without needing large directional conviction.

Risk Management Reminder

This is a process trade, not a prediction.

• Smaller position size

• Predefined exits

• No overnight hero trades

• Discipline over excitement

December rewards traders who survive—not those who swing for headlines.

Interval Trader Takeaway

This week’s opportunity is not about NVDA the company—it’s about NVDA the vehicle.

A liquid, extended leader
A known volatility profile
A repeatable cycle

That’s what professional traders trade.

Final Thought

As 2025 winds down, your edge comes from patience, structure, and execution, not aggression.

Let price come to your level.
Let probability do the work.
Trade the interval.

— The Interval Trader Team