Yesterday, the Fed delivered a 25-basis‐point cut and signalled an end to its balance sheet reduction programme. Nasdaq+2DTN PF+2 The markets trading on the Globex platform are now digesting the implications. For traders at The Interval Trader, the futures flows provide a leading edge before the cash markets fully digest yesterday’s policy shift.

Interest-Rate Futures: One of the Strongest Signals

On the short‐end of the curve, futures tied to the federal funds rate and other short‐term contracts on the CME Group — such as the 30-Day Fed Funds futures — are now pricing in a higher likelihood of further easing. CME Group+1

• The implied yield in these contracts has dropped, reflecting that participants believe the Fed’s rate path may turn easier.

• This shift often leads to roll-downs in Treasury futures and increased activity in duration trades.
  Trader take-away: Monitor the spreads between Eurodollar futures, Fed Funds futures and Treasury futures on Globex. If the short‐end mark moves aggressively, you might see yield curve flatteners steepen or steepeners unwind.
  Actionable trigger: A meaningful drop in short-end futures yield (e.g., Fed Funds futures settlement moves lower by ≥ 5 bps) could be your signal to trade a rate-sensitive spread (e.g., TY vs US2 contract).

Equity Index Futures (Globex E-minis): Risk-On Tilt Emerges

Index futures traded on Globex (such as the S&P 500 E-mini and Nasdaq 100 E-mini) are showing a modest risk‐on tilt following the Fed move: futures were up ahead of cash open, and the tone remains constructive. MarketScreener+1

• The rationale: Lower borrowing costs + liquidity sustaining support = positive for growth / tech, cyclicals.

• But caution: The Fed emphasised data-dependence and avoided committing to a strong easing path. DTN PF
  Trader take-away: If S&P E-mini futures (+ES) maintain gains through the Globex overnight session, that may serve as an early “green light” for intraday long setups in cash. Conversely, if futures roll over sharply, it may signal profit taking in risk assets.
  Actionable trigger: Use the Globex overnight high/low in E-mini futures to place breakout entries. If overnight high is held and volume picks up, consider long bias; if the overnight low breaks, look for reversal or fade.

Commodity & Currency Futures: Mixed Signals but Themes Shift

With interest rates lower and liquidity expectations changing, commodity futures (oil, base metals) and currency futures are also reacting:

• Oil futures saw some support amid the rate cut — lower discount rates can boost the net present value of future cash flows in commodity producers.

• Currency futures: A cut can pressure the U.S. dollar, supporting commodity‐linked currencies/futures.
  Trader take-away: Don’t overlook the “second order” effects: rate cuts can ignite commodity flows and FX/futures inter‐market moves.
  Actionable trigger: If the U.S. dollar futures contract (DX) weakens significantly in Globex overnight, you may want exposure to commodities or FX‐sensitive futures assets.

Final Word

For The Interval Trader, the story in the futures markets (Globex) is clear: the Fed’s rate cut and balance sheet pivot opened a window for flows into risk assets, but with caveats. The key will be how the futures markets interpret and lead the move, not just the cut itself.

• Watch the short‐end interest-rate futures for yield curve signals.

• Pay attention to index futures for early directional bias.

• Use commodity & FX futures as confirmation of liquidity theme shifts.

• Trade using the Globex overnight range as a seed for the day’s momentum.

Stay nimble and keep your execution aligned with flow — the futures markets are giving you the hints before the cash open.